Marie-Hélène Caillol

A Manual of political anticipation

10x15 cm - 64 p.

4.5010.00

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Description

On many occasions during the last 25 years, the sphere of influence focused around the personage of Franck Biancheri has, de facto, provided fertile ground for the correct anticipation of major historic events: the fall of the Iron Curtain, the crisis of the European Commission, the collapse of the Dollar and the global systemic crisis… are some of the most striking predictions in the story (which is still unfolding) of this sphere of influence whose very diverse features (European context, network organisation, political objectives, independent state of mind…) allows one to suppose that they play some role, without doubt, in this « ability ».

    Indeed, if one’s correct anticipation is the result of chance, the second can be good luck, but by a third, it becomes possible to hope that some rules and a rational approach are at play.

    The work done within this sphere of influence, among which the most illustrative is that conducted by LEAP (Laboratoire Européen d’Anticipation Politique) through its monthly publication, the GEAB (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin), has even forced the respect of academics, giving rise to a need for a contemporary approach, which is the purpose of this manual: What is political anticipation (and what it isn’t)? What is its use? What are the tools, principles and rules which shape it? What are its limits?

    These are the questions which this small manual will try and answer.

 

Critique : 

•  « Le terreau d’une anticipation correcte d’événements historiques majeurs…» Un article de Florence Denestebe pour le journal Herault Tribune à découvrir ici

Weight 65 g
Dimensions 10 × 15 cm
Language

FR, EN, GER, SPA

Type

PAPERBACK, PDF

SUMMARY

Introduction

Why political anticipation?

  • Seizing the future and managing complex entities
  • A decision-making tool
  • A tool to help citizenship

What is political anticipation?

  • The concept of the historian of the future
  • What political anticipation isn’t
  • Why « political »?
  • Integrating the dynamic vision of history
  • Thinking the unthinkable
  • Thinking trend breaks

Toward a méthod of political anticipation

  • Define the object of the study
  • The standpoint for the anticipation
  • The state of mind required
  • A reasoned, rational and understandable view
  • The question of sources at the heart of the success or failure of political anticipation
  • Network, a human resources key element in terms of political anticipation
  • Evaluating the anticipation

Limits and constraints of political anticipation

  • The difficulties of fixing a date, and yet…
  • The importance of communication
  • The paradox and potential drifts of anticipation
  • The Cassandra syndrome

Conclusion

THE AUTHOR

Marie-Hélène Caillol

 

Marie-Hélène Caillol is the President of LEAP (Laboratoire Européen d’Anticipation Politique) which publishes the GEAB (Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin), a monthly Bulletin which develops state-of-the-art geopolitical anticipation studies including which, first and foremost, the analysis and follow-up of the global systemic crisis.

She is also a sociologist and a specialist of European, Mediterranean and international affairs.

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